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We are frequently caught in an illusion in our current business culture. We have come to believe that we can mitigate all risk, know how all things are going to play out, model the future and assure success. We have come to believe that complex spreadsheets can substitute or supplant all other decision making tools. Analysis has in essence become a sort of insurance policy. Ironically, the recent past has clearly demonstrated that we can’t model the future; in fact models trumped “common sense” and in a great way precipitated the tumbling dominoes of the financial crisis. And this crisis has simultaneously made us so cautious to make mistakes that we are very hesitant to commit to a course of action and move forward.
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